{"id":815,"date":"2008-05-17T23:35:32","date_gmt":"2008-05-18T07:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/2008\/05\/17\/tv-as-we-know-it-is-dead-shift-to-web-based-video-costs-producers-88-of-ad-revenues\/"},"modified":"2008-05-17T23:35:32","modified_gmt":"2008-05-18T07:35:32","slug":"tv-as-we-know-it-is-dead-shift-to-web-based-video-costs-producers-88-of-ad-revenues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/tv-as-we-know-it-is-dead-shift-to-web-based-video-costs-producers-88-of-ad-revenues\/","title":{"rendered":"TV as We Know It is Dead: Shift to Web-based Video Costs Producers 88% of Ad Revenues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><big><big>Can you say &#8220;Doomed&#8221;? <\/big><\/big><\/p>\n<p>Apparently, a report called &#8220;And Now for the News,&#8221; written by Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research, came out this week, and it&#8217;s got both Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, and, not coincidentally, HDNet, and the pundits at <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dmwmedia.com\/news\/2008\/05\/06\/analysis%3A-raising-la-carte-alarm#comments\">Digital Media Wire <\/a>all atwitter over the stark economic realities.  <\/p>\n<p>Cuban made billions of dollars in the internet video game, and, while he&#8217;s acted the fool at various Maverick games over the years, nobody has ever accused him of either being stupid or lacking passion.  So when he starts winding up the air-raid siren, it gets my attention. <\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.blogmaverick.com\/2008\/05\/04\/the-ala-carting-of-video-on-the-net-will-it-lead-to-disaster\/\">From Cuban&#8217;s blog:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><font color=\"#ff0000\">Starting with the disappointing but expected news that journalism is no<br \/>\nlonger a service consumers desire to pay for, he moves on to the<br \/>\nproblems facing Internet video.<\/font><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>(snip)<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><font color=\"#ff0000\">Five years into the video-over-the-Internet revolution, we have learned<br \/>\ntwo things. First; consumers won&#8217;t pay for content on the web, so it<br \/>\nwill have to be ad supported. And second; it won&#8217;t be ad supported. <\/font><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Oh, shit. (*stomach lurches*)<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><font color=\"#ff0000\">On the web, early evidence suggests that consumers will tune out \u00e2\u20ac\u201c<br \/>\nclick away \u00e2\u20ac\u201c if they are forced to watch more than 30 seconds or so of<br \/>\nadvertising up front, and maybe another 90 seconds of advertising over<br \/>\nthe next thirty minutes. Hulu.com, for example, which has already been<br \/>\nlionized by many as the future of TV, serves two minutes of advertising<br \/>\nfor every 22 minutes of programming(i.e. the programming duration of a<br \/>\ntypical half hour show from television). Assuming identical CPMs for<br \/>\nweb video and TV, and after accounting for lost affiliate fees, a 30<br \/>\nminute program on the web with two minutes of advertising yields<br \/>\napproximately 1\/8th as much revenue per viewer. <\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Are content producers prepared to reduce production costs&#8230;by 88%? <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>In fact, the actual economics of web-based video are far, far worse than this.<\/strong> <\/font><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sweetie, can you get me a hemlock cocktail, please? Easy on the ice. And see if there are any razor blades in the junk drawer?<\/p>\n<p>88%? Are you freakin&#8217; kidding me?  That kind of revenue restructuring would be in line with what newspapers have experienced since classified ads migrated to the web (i.e. the &#8220;Craigslist effect&#8221;).  And yeah, I know, there are some shellshocked newspaper reporters\/editors who will nod wearily, taking schadenfreude satisfaction that the arrogant pacotillos in local TV are about to take the bollocking that print has taken these last 10 years. <\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.contentagenda.com\/\"><br \/>Over at Digital Media Wire, Paul Sweeting <\/a>explains the problem that video producers here in Hollywood face, seeing as how they&#8217;re making the same goddam mistakes that music labels made when the internet came calling: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p><font color=\"#ff0000\"><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\nThere&#8217;s no reason to believe that video producers&#8217; experience will be<br \/>\nany different. Like it or not, the web simply isn&#8217;t very kind to<br \/>\npublishers, packagers and distributors. It rewards enablers. Search is<br \/>\nan enabling technology&#8211;perhaps the ultimate enabling technology. And<br \/>\nas Google shareholders can tell you, it&#8217;s been rewarded. The challenge<br \/>\nfor publishers is not to figure out how to force the web to reward<br \/>\nthem. It&#8217;s to figure out how to capture the value created by enabling<br \/>\ntechnology.<\/span><br \/><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\n<\/span><br \/><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\nIn that sense, Cuban is right. It may not make sense for the networks<br \/>\nsimply to make their schedules available for free on the Internet. That<br \/>\ndoesn&#8217;t really create any new value; it mostly just drains value from<br \/>\nlinear platforms.<\/span><br \/><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\n<\/span><br \/><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\nWhat the networks need is to figure out how to capture the value<br \/>\ncreated by enabling consumers to access, select, aggregate, transform,<br \/>\nembed and share content&#8211;in a word, to <i>use<\/i> it. Anything else is just TV with buffering.<\/span><\/font><br \/><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span name=\"intelliTxt\" id=\"intelliTXT\"><br \/>\n<\/span>For scripted TV entertainment, well, I&#8217;m not sure what the survival strategy is yet. I do know that there is not much love in the ad world for a CPM rate hike for online video that would bridge that 88% gap. There&#8217;s just too much other product out there screaming for attention &#8230; not to mention the fact that the scripted TV content (and movie content, for that matter) is a melting sandcastle to the surging broadband tide.  Trying to make back a $160 million budget from some exotic cocktail of online subscription, advertising and branded sponsorship &#8230; well, let&#8217;s just say that I&#8217;m glad I&#8217;m not writing the checks on <i><b>that <\/b><\/i>one.  I don&#8217;t know how you can possibly monetize the budgets that Hollywood is used to. <\/p>\n<p>And folks, we know &#8211; dammit, we know all too well &#8211; how the media megalopalies react to revenue reductions. For a time, they throw money at the problem.  And then come the cutbacks.  &#8220;We have to do more with less.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p>\nIt comes down to our old friends, supply and demand.  If there is<br \/>\ndemand for the kind of spectacle that you get in Iron Man or Raiders 4,<br \/>\nor whatever, there will be someone out there that will supply it &#8230;<br \/>\nbut at the price point that the people on the demand side set. <\/p>\n<p>Kiss those expense-account lunches at The Ivy goodbye.  All the little perks that pampered writers, directors, producers and stars have gotten used to over the years.  There is going to be a lot of screaming and whining hereabouts in the next decade or so. <\/p>\n<p>I think that my clients over in newspapers have actually got a significant advantage in this arena.  The future of video is going to be like the future of news: disaggregated and hyperlocal.  Papers can do this.  Papers ARE doing this. <\/p>\n<p>I can&#8217;t figure out how to take a 2 1\/2 hour piece of video &#8211; hell, video of any length, from a blipvert to the entire back catalog of the Museum of Radio and TV &#8211; and make it pay off a $320 million opening weekend return. <\/p>\n<p>But I can teach you how to monetize short clips shot by reporters that go along with local news stories.  That&#8217;s do-able. <br \/>One last thing: in the comments was this gem, sure to be included in my next series of trainings for newspapers migrating to video on the web: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p><font color=\"#ff0000\">I&#8217;ve never seen ABC.com and the rest put an RSS, Email, or text message subscribe\/alert button on their video pages. Instead they want us all to *remember* show schedules, come back, and sit through ads. They&#8217;re blowing a huge chance to have a relationship with the audience. The sad truth is that TV networks don&#8217;t want a relationship. They want us all to sit around the glowing box together on *their* schedule as if it were 1966.<\/font><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can you say &#8220;Doomed&#8221;? Apparently, a report called &#8220;And Now for the News,&#8221; written by Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research, came out this week, and it&#8217;s got both Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, and, not coincidentally, HDNet, and the pundits at Digital Media Wire all atwitter over the stark economic realities. Cuban made [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,107,117,24],"tags":[363,374,847,872,351,873,352,857,370],"class_list":["post-815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-journalism","category-music","category-newspaper-crisis","category-television","tag-current-affairs","tag-film","tag-journalism","tag-music","tag-new-media-strategery","tag-newspaper-crisis","tag-online-multimedia","tag-television","tag-webtech"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artesianmedia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}