Dec 30
Posted: under Dead Cat Bounce, Denial of Reality, Digital Migration, monetizing mobile content, Newspaper Deathwatch.
Michael Arrington apparently wants my morning coffee to wind up on the keyboard. Display advertising revenue is going to fall of a cliff in Januaryaccording to a number of content sites I’ve spoken with who rely onadvertising for revenue. “Sales through December were mostly strong as advertisers used up their marketing budgets,” said one sales [...] [...more]
Michael Arrington apparently wants my morning coffee to wind up on the keyboard.
Display advertising revenue is going to fall of a cliff in January
according to a number of content sites I’ve spoken with who rely on
advertising for revenue. “Sales through December were mostly strong as advertisers used up their marketing budgets,” said one sales exec. But, he added, “there are few buyers for this next fiscal quarter, and those few that are buying are looking for steep discounts.”
Just how bad will it be? I’ve heard estimates of 30%-80% revenue
drops over the next three months from companies that serve a variety of
content (games sites, tech news, celebrity news, political news, etc.).
The median pessimism point is around 50%. The people I’ve spoken with
work at large public companies and small one-person blog shops.
Absolutely no one I spoke with said they expect an up quarter.
Translation: If you work at any sort of media outlet, there’s about a 50-50 shot that the next few months will involve putting the little plastic baggies on your hands and trudging to work down at Quizno’s to make sammiches.
According to Ad Age, the meltdown that started in newspapers (article headline: “Media Jobs? Depressing)…
U.S. media have cut 196,200 or 18.6% of jobs since employment in that sector peaked in the 2000 dot-com bubble. More than half the cuts (109,700) came from newspapers. Media employment fell by 3.1% (27,600 jobs) from the start of the recession in December 2007 through October 2008.
…is about to hit the ad agencies in a big, big way:
More cuts are likely; Omnicom Group did major cuts in December. While economists guess the recession will end in the second half of 2009, the U.S. job market — including the agency sector — could get stuck in another extended “jobless recovery.”
Investors have soured on the agency sector. Combined market capitalization of the Big Four agency firms — Omnicom, WPP, Interpublic Group of Cos., Publicis Groupe — in December 2008 was $23.4 billion, not dramatically above the June 2007 market cap of WPP alone ($18.3 billion).
Looked at this way, the newspaper contractions have been the “canaries in the coalmine” in the media industry, and the next 9 months or so are going to see a lot of other people sharing the fate of the ink-stained wretches. Which is not good news for newspaper people who are getting downsized, and who haven’t given a lot of thought as to what they can do next. All the prescriptions & nostrums that have been offered thus far – start up your own hyper-local news website & start selling ads to local merchants – are not going to be possible when said local merchants are closing their doors and/or eliminating their discretionary ad budgets.
I’m sure the coming months will hear wails & howls from the ad folks like those we’ve been hearing from the news side. However – like in the news business – those advertising professionals who are on top of the latest trends, and who have trained themselves to have multiple skills – they will survive.
Technorati Tags: ad revenue decline, newspapers crisis, online ad decline
Dec 27
Posted: under Conspiracy Theories, Denial of Reality, Politics & New Media.
I threw up a little in my mouth when I read this: Southern Baptist Pastor Wiley Drake bashed Saddleback Church Pastor Rick Warren this week, saying “God will punish” Warrenfor agreeing to give the invocation at President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration next month. “I pray He is kind to you in this punishment that is coming,” [...] [...more]
I threw up a little in my mouth when I read this:
Southern Baptist Pastor Wiley Drake bashed Saddleback Church Pastor Rick Warren this week, saying “God will punish” Warren
for agreeing to give the invocation at President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration next month.
“I pray He is kind to you in this punishment that is coming,” Drake wrote in a widely-released e-mail. In it, the First Southern BaptistChurch of Buena Park pastor criticizes Warren’s “recent plan to invokethe presence of almighty God on this evil illegal alien,” a referenceto Obama.
The fact that such obviously insane people are allowed to walk the streets of Our Fair Nation is the most searing indictment of the
long-term effects of the Reagan revolution on our mental-health safety net. The minute the parishoners stop the gravy train for this lunatic is the day he begins his downward slide to wandering the streets of the South Bay area with a matted beard, visible body odor and cardboard boxes tied to his feet.
This is some industrial-strength crazy hatin’.
In early 2008, while he was the pastor for the First Southern Baptist Church of Buena Park, Reverend Drake was a vocal supporter of Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee‘s presidential campaign. He sent out a letter personally endorsing Huckabee. However, the letter was on church stationery; thus, to the Internal Revenue Service, Rev. Drake was endorsing a political candidate as a church leader and endangering his church’s tax-exempt status.
Rev. Drake’s violation of federal tax law was reported to the IRS by an advocacy group called Americans United for Separation of Church and State (AU), which had warned him for endorsing Dick Mountjoy for a U.S. Senate race with a Southern Baptist Convention letterhead.Rev. Drake asked his parishioners and others to pray for revenge using an imprecatory prayer for the punishment, shame, and even deaths of AU officials.
And For. The. Win.
In October 2008, Drake, stating he was still a candidate for vice
president, announced that he had filed a lawsuit seeking to have the
Secretary of State of the State of Washington “de-certify Barack Obama
because he has refused to release proof of being a Natural Born Citizen”
Holy shit! This knucklehead is STILL buying into the unbelievably disgraced and laughably false Obama-hatin’ birth certificate Nigerian Prince scam!
And now he’s even attacking one of the most powerful figures in the Evangelical Christian world for his association with Obama? Damn, man. When I saw a short notation on the screen of Fox News, talking about the Rick Warren imbroglio, I noted the short sentence, “If Democrats realized how terrified Republicans are of Obama adding Rick Warren to the team, they’d stop opposing this.”
Looks like they were onto something. This could further the fractures in the Republican base - splitting the reality-aware Evangelicals away from the batshit-crazy Evangelicals like this specimen:
We are seeing the evolution of a truly reality-divergent slice of our population. The Obama-haters have their “grassy knoll.” It’s as though the wackos with their conspiracy theories about plastique charges in the WTC or cruise missiles fired into the Pentagon, had an official spokesman. Someone who has a radio audience and actual political power. And who says shit like this.
Even if he were born in Hawaii, he was born to an American-citizen
mother and a British-citizen father. That’s a proven fact. According to
these fellows, the constitutional definition is no matter where you are
born, both parents have to be Americans. Even if he were born on U.S.
soil, that’s a moot point because he’s not qualified. Phil Berg’s case
says we have evidence, proof, that he was not born on American soil.
His own paternal grandmother says he was born in Kenya. That’s what got
me turned on. I’m a pastor. I have a tendency to believe people. When I
heard an elderly paternal grandmother—speaking in Swahili, if it was
interpreted right, and I think it was—say that she saw her grandson,
Barack Hussein Obama, come out of his mother here in Kenya, I can’t
imagine why she made that up. There is no motive for lying. In all
honesty, she’s just bragging on her grandson.
Man, even the citizen reporters down in the O.C are getting fired up over this fruitbat & his congregation. (h/t to CNN’s excellent iReport)
Hey – here’s a marketing opportunity for the paranoia-enablers – get the Wiley Drake congregation list and start spamming them with aluminum-foil “Survival Hats” necessary to protect their brains from the inevitable Taliban mind-control rays that are going to start coming outta them internet tubes after Barack Hussein takes power.
Technorati Tags: obama-haters, wiley drake, southern baptist, conspiracy theories
Dec 27
Posted: under Catching a Falling Knife, Dead Cat Bounce, Denial of Reality, Digital Migration, Newspaper Deathwatch, Webconomics.
Been a while between posts here – I’ve had writing deadlines, presentation deadlines and a dauntingly ambitious editing task to try to manage. Anyway, despite this being the Christmas season, oft-assailed gadfly & jilted lover of newspapers Jeff Jarvis wrote yet another opinion piece about how the entire newspaper industry is screwed as though it [...] [...more]
Been a while between posts here – I’ve had writing deadlines, presentation deadlines and a dauntingly ambitious editing task to try to manage.
Anyway, despite this being the Christmas season, oft-assailed gadfly & jilted lover of newspapers Jeff Jarvis wrote yet another opinion piece about how the entire newspaper industry is screwed as though it had stood in the way of one of those Martian drilling machines in “Total Recall.” The cheery news was under a headline of “No hope,” and it went downhill from there.
A sampling:
* McClatchy shares hit 60 cents yesterday. As I write this, it’s up to
a big 78 cents. Bubble! Gatehouse hit 4 cents (and I’d still short them
given their current attitude); market cap: $2.3 million. See Alan
Mutter’s excellent analysis of how debt did in papers. I’d say it’s more than that: It was
misplaced optimism in the form and in the incumbents. If these papers
had instead taken on debt to innovate and create or to buy innovates (a
la the New York Times buying About), that might have been productive.
Instead, they bought newspapers, which was only an indication of how
snug their blinders were.
Well, that couldn’t go unchallenged for long, and it wasn’t. Howard Weaver commented and blogged:
I get so fucking tired of correcting you, Jeff. Has it *ever* occurred
to you to do some reporting — like asking questions of those involved —
before pronouncing such apocalyptic conclusions?
…aaaaand the slapfight was on.
They went back & forth over whether or not McClatchy employees were screwed as hard as the Enron employees whose retirements were stuck in suddenly worthless company stock. Which they apparently were not. Although Weaver does admit that his own stock options are worth bupkis. Meanwhile, they also attempted to define just what the internet is – if it’s a medium, a delivery system, or the tool with which we will achieve universal brotherhood & peace.
(Wait for it … it’s coming…)
By the time we get to the end of the comments section on Howard’s blog, the two are all but embracing, tears in their eyes, beer slopping from their mugs, pledging blood brotherhood, and singing “Sweet Adeline.” Off-key.
My retirement may be a little diminished by the lost value of those options, but I’m confident it will be enriched by watching McClatchy emerge successfully as the model of a new public service journalism company.
Thanks for participating — here and elsewhere.
Right on cue.
Now, I’m not entirely comfortable siding with Jarvis. He’s been criticized pretty heavily for his downbeat analysis, and for what a lot of people see as poorly disguised schadenfreude over newspaper crisis. Some of that criticism has elicited an angry response from Jarvis, and then later muttered apologies … which feels familiar to me, since I’ve been guilty of the “Burn, baby burn” attitude myself. It comes out of real feelings of frustration over opportunities that just keep sliding by.
But it strikes me that when people really don’t want to hear the content of what you have to say, they start focusing in on the tone & tenor, whether you misspelled a word or mangled a phrase. Nitpicking on all the little things, distracts the attention from the Great Big Scary Thing.
So let me make this a little easier. Some of us out here bagged the newspaper gig to go work at start-ups, and this is all starting to feel real, real familiar to us. The cuts on top of cuts, the constant fear, the daily “Spin the Wheel of Long-term Strategies.” Freshening up the resume, calling your friends at the competition to see if they know of any secure gigs out there … checking fuckedcompany.com to see if your name is on there …
And then comes the day that you walk into the office and the CEO is puking his guts out into a garbage can, and sobbing “We lost everything! It’s all gone! We’re all dead!”
Those were some real bad times for some of us out here in Digital Land.
‘Member what the reaction was from the newspapers and the rest of Big Media when we started going down in flames?
What’s that?
Sounded like the faint echo of a thousand keyboards pecking out the phrase “Serves you punks right.”
BTW – really do take the time to click through to that last link – it encapsulates perfectly the Old Media thinking at the time that Web 1.0 cratered:
In the 1950s, it was TV that was going to kill the newspaper industry. Now, it’s the Internet. “We’ve heard it all before,” says Morton. “A newspaper is cheap, easy to use, portable, and a great way to get information out to the masses without straining eyes or a budget.” Right now, investors are thinking the worst. Perhaps they should think again.
Tribune Co. at 66. Dow Jones at 83 (now part of News Corp, which is at 9). Gannet described as having a “fat war chest” and looking at hitting 90 (currently below 9). Reads like some kinda fairytale these days, doesn’t it?
Back when our startups were dying, I remember getting laughing calls from print colleagues, reading me the latest “Drillbit Stock” quotes. Was that piling on? Rubbing it in? Probably, although we were all so abashed at the way the bottom had fallen out, we weren’t in a position to protest.
What we did do was suck it up and learn from the disaster.
Technorati Tags: newspaper crisis, dot-com crash, print apocalypse
Dec 04
Posted: under Conspiracy Theories, Denial of Reality, Politics & New Media.
Tags: Conspiracy Theories
I hesitate to even blog this, but apparently some people have their hands over their ears & are screaming like an F-18 engine on takeoff, desperate to avoid the news or any other hint of reality penetrating their Anti-Reality Extra-Stoopid Force Field… Lawsuits filed in Hawaii to force disclosure of Obama birth records The new [...] [...more]
I hesitate to even blog this, but apparently some people have their hands over their ears & are screaming like an F-18 engine on takeoff, desperate to avoid the news or any other hint of reality penetrating their Anti-Reality Extra-Stoopid Force Field…
Lawsuits filed in Hawaii to force disclosure of Obama birth records
The new challenge is an outgrowth of a legal suit filed in Mississippi,
which questioned whether Obama is a “natural born citizen” of the U.S.
Plaintiffs in that suit subpoenaed a copy of the birth certificate Nov.
26 from the Hawai’i Health Department. The plaintiffs include
conservative political activist and failed presidential candidate Alan
Keyes, who lost to Obama in the 2004 U.S. Senate race in Illinois.
Oh good grief.
This is like a rube taken in by P.T. Barnum’s “Fiji Mermaid” filing suit because they had subcontracted with one of Barnum’s gin-soaked roustabouts to have the mermaid do deep cenote diving in search of the Inca Gold of the Seven Cities of Cibola, and the dingdang critter never showed up for the steamship ride.
UPDATE: Aaagh! It doesn’t stop!
It looks like the Barack Obama citizenship issue will not die until he is inaugurated. It probably will not end even then.
Now the U.S. Supreme Court will discuss the matter in private because one justice decided it was worthy. Before
fingering the member of our highest court, I will give a little
background information on the case. If you do not think too hard about
it, you can probably guess which Supreme Court Justice is responsible.
PEOPLE. THIS WAS A HOAX. A NOT-TRUE THING.
SCAM ARTISTS ARE TAKING YOU FOR A RIDE. STOP FALLING FOR THIS.
…oh, what’s the use…
